The Million Portfolio exceeds 100% profitability

The million portfolio surpasses +100% profitability and reaffirms its trajectory toward the goal.

The “million portfolio” dates back to when it all began.

From the start, the approach was clear: to build a fully indexed, globally diversified, low-cost managed portfolio with recurring contributions, with an ambitious yet achievable long-term goal: to accumulate what at that time seemed like a dream, reaching €1,000,000 for retirement.

This portfolio is not a theoretical exercise.

It represents a real strategy put into practice, with a risk profile of 8 out of 10, and it has gone through all recent market cycles: it passed an initial test with a mere 10% correction in 2018, the 35% market drop during COVID in 2020, the 2022 bear market (-25%), but also the recent recovery between 2023 and 2024, in addition to other strong years in between.

Despite all this, it has demonstrated the robustness of a simple yet powerful financial plan and two well-designed portfolios that complement each other.

Historical evolution: from the first euro to the first major milestone

On the inbestMe blog, we have been commenting step by step on the evolution of this portfolio, as it can serve as inspiration for many:

• In 2022, we analyzed how it was sticking to its plan despite an adverse environment.
• In 2023, after two bear markets, we reviewed its resilience.
• And more recently, in March 2024, we celebrated that it reached historic highs.

Now, in July 2025, thanks to the excellent returns of our portfolios during the first half of 2025, the portfolio has surpassed a new milestone:

• The million portfolio has accumulated a total return (TWR) of 101%, with an annualized return (TAE) of 6%.

Moreover, in absolute value, it surpassed weeks ago the first barrier of €100,000 in current value, starting from an initial contribution of €9,000 and funded almost exclusively through recurring contributions.

Simulation and probability of success

The goal simulator has been an additional help to fine-tune plan achievement.

According to Monte Carlo simulations performed by the inbestMe simulator (30,000 simulations), this portfolio currently has a 51% probability of reaching or exceeding one million euros by 2055, assuming current contributions of €365 per month are maintained and gradually increased over the years to secure the goal.

The average simulated result for 2055 is €1,010,635, just a few thousand above the target, compared to a total expected net deposit (current value + future contributions) of €228,583.
That is, almost €800,000 will result from long-term investment growth, assuming the plan continues and probabilities materialize.

Having the goal within reach with a 51% probability does not mean all the work is done. The simulator is clear: “the goal is aligned but at risk of deviation.” Therefore, it is still recommended to review the plan once a year and, if possible, slightly increase contributions to raise the probability of success to 60% or even 65%.

The positive point is that we are already on the right path, and there is still room to adjust the course with time.
The annualized return obtained is now 6%, just a tenth below the expected 6.1%, showing a strong alignment between the plan and reality at this moment. It has not always been this way, but over the long term, the probability of achieving the expected outcome increases exponentially.

The current distribution corresponds to a risk profile of 8/10: an aggressive but well-diversified and coherent strategy, with a very long investment horizon (up to 30 years). The high exposure to global equities (61%) and the real estate sector (6.8%), via major world indices, is balanced with defensive assets such as bonds (23%) and gold (8%). This combination has been key in driving returns in recent years, especially amid strong market recovery.

Another important reflection is that, given the long horizon, the profile could be even riskier; however, if profile 8 already achieves our goal, why take more risk?

Consistency in following a plan is now a textbook lesson

The most important aspect of this portfolio has not been to time the market perfectly, but to stay the course. There have been negative years, clearly visible in the charts: painful corrections and uncertain scenarios with an unknown virus that confined us at home, inflation crises, unfortunately an ongoing war, and another trade war in the air. But there has also been growth, the magic of compound interest, and a simple winning formula.

Today, ten years later, the time-weighted return (TWR) has already surpassed 100%, and it did so without grandstanding or speculative bets.

Just with a good plan and consistency.

And there has been proper planning. We should now refer to the million portfolios as having two levels:

• An emergency fund aiming to accumulate a minimum of €10,000 to ensure…
• …The ability to maintain the main objective, retirement, or financial independence.

Note: Residents in Spain generally benefit from tax deductions for retirement savings using pension plans. In this case, it was not used for very specific reasons.

The million portfolio not only demonstrates that achieving an ambitious goal is possible but that it can be done realistically, automatically, and without unnecessary complications, and as a methodology accessible to everyone, according to each person’s saving capacity.

There will be other gray moments. It may fall below 100% again, certainly, even in the coming days. Over 30 years, it will be normal to go through other crises of all kinds, but the path traveled shows the way.

Uncertainty and volatility test many investors. We especially acknowledge those who are able to stick to their plan: it is not always easy, but as observed in the million portfolio, it usually pays off.

This long-term mindset is the foundation of our investment philosophy and the technology we apply at inbestMe. We recommend our clients use our functionalities to put everything on autopilot: the goal simulator together with automated contributions makes it very simple.

We provide globally diversified portfolios to help manage risk better and build a more resilient wealth.

If you want to know more about the million portfolio, it is already featured in Raquel Quelart’s book Cuida tu bolsillo, which collects content from the Bolsillo de La Vanguardia podcast, in which I had the pleasure of discussing firsthand the virtues of this portfolio a few years ago.