The Million Portfolio closes 2025 with a +120% return and an aligned objective

The Million Portfolio accumulates +120% and reaches new highs again.

The Million Portfolio (where it all began) has benefited from the exceptional returns of 2025 and reached an accumulated return of around 120% by year-end.

Periods of declines are now behind us, followed by a recovery of previous highs and their recent breakout. At the time of writing this post, a new high above +122% has been reached—almost 12 percentage points more than expected (110%).

Annualized return (CAGR) at 6.6%, above expectations

Patience pays off in investing when there is a clear objective.

Driven by the momentum of recent years, the actual annualized return (CAGR) now stands at 6.6%, which is 0.5 percentage points above the expected return of 6.1%.

Let’s remember that this has not always been the case.

In the chart on the right (see the green line), we can observe periods when returns were below expectations. This is a clear example of how our message—sticking to the plan and making regular contributions regardless of market conditions—delivers results.

The objective and the Goal Forecaster: what matters most

Since launching the Goal Forecaster, we have strictly applied a key principle when making decisions about the account: focusing on what we can control. As both the target amount and the target year are clearly defined, this involves an annual review of the simulator to check whether the goal remains achievable. As of today, the plan is “aligned,” with a 52% probability of success.

Having an aligned objective does not mean there is no room for improvement.

We are also confident that there will be other unknown events, normal market corrections, or even new bearish market phases.

The simulator indicates that it is advisable to continue optimizing recurring contributions—an exercise we carry out systematically at the beginning of each year. The goal is to gradually increase the probability of success toward 65%, a level we consider reasonable to have very high confidence that the objective can be achieved.

At this point, the simulator suggests increasing the monthly contribution by just over €200. Making that jump all at once is not always possible, but any increase—no matter how small—will help improve, year after year, the probability of reaching the goal. That’s what we’re working on.

We will review our progress again in one year.