FED and ECB hold rates in March 2026: Savings Portfolio at 1.60% (EUR) and 3.25% (USD)

In their March 2026 meeting, both the Federal Reserve (FED) and the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep interest rates unchanged. The conflict with Iran and the resulting rise in oil prices have added uncertainty to an already complex environment, reinforcing the wait-and-see stance of both central banks.

For savers and investors, the immediate conclusion is clear: the inbestMe EUR Savings Portfolio maintains its IRR at 1.60% and the USD Savings Portfolio remains at 3.25%, both well above the average of bank deposits.

Below, we review the key points of each decision and what they mean for your savings.

What did the ECB decide in March 2026?

At its March 19 meeting, the ECB (European Central Bank) decided not to change its official interest rates. The deposit facility remains at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility at 2.40%. This is the sixth consecutive meeting without changes, confirming that the ECB considers the current level of rates compatible with a gradual return of inflation to its 2% target.

It is worth recalling the path taken: the ECB implemented an aggressive tightening cycle that raised the deposit rate to 4% in 2024, before gradually cutting it to 2% in June 2025. Since then, the pause period has been consolidated.

The main focus of this meeting has been the Iran conflict and the rebound in oil prices, which adds inflationary pressure to the European economy. Although it is still too early to translate this risk into a rate hike, analysts point out that Christine Lagarde adopted a slightly more cautious tone in her press conference, leaving open the possibility of a 25 basis point increase before the summer if the geopolitical context persists. The market now prices in almost three rate hikes in 2026 by the ECB.

The ECB continues to apply a data-dependent approach, deciding meeting by meeting. The fundamentals of the European economy — low unemployment, healthy private sector balance sheets, and momentum in defense and infrastructure spending — remain reasonably solid, but trade and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on the outlook.

What did the FED decide in March 2026?

UA day earlier, on March 18, the Federal Reserve announced that it was keeping the Fed Funds rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range, marking the second consecutive pause in 2026 following three 25 basis point cuts in the final stretch of 2025 (September, October, and December).

The FED faces a complex combination: inflation above the 2% target (expected to reach 2.7% in 2026, revised upward from 2.4% in December) and a labor market that is gradually losing momentum. The surge in energy prices due to the Iran conflict adds further inflationary pressure, making short-term rate cuts more difficult.

The new “dot plot” reflects only one expected cut for 2026, with seven of the 19 FOMC members indicating they prefer not to change rates at all this year. Chairman Jerome Powell was clear: monetary policy does not follow a predefined path, and decisions will be made meeting by meeting based on incoming data.

Regarding leadership changes, Powell’s term expires in May, when Kevin Warsh will take over. Warsh supports rate cuts, convinced that productivity gains linked to artificial intelligence can contain inflation, but he is more critical of asset purchases (QE), which could imply less liquidity in the system in the medium term — something markets are already factoring into valuations.

Powell also stated that:

• He will remain in his position until Warsh is confirmed by Congress. This may sound obvious, but it reflects statements by several members of the Senate Banking Committee, including Republican Thom Tillis, who have made it clear they will oppose the confirmation of any Fed nominee, including Kevin Warsh, until the Department of Justice’s criminal investigation into Jerome Powell is resolved.
• He will maintain his role as a member of the Board of Governors (which expires in 2028) until the proceedings conclude. This would be the first time since the 1940s that a Fed Chair remains on the Board after the end of his term.

Powell’s continued presence on the Fed Board would likely make it more difficult for Warsh to proceed with rate cuts.

The EUR Savings Portfolio remains at 1.60% IRR

The ECB’s decision to keep rates unchanged means that the variable IRR of the inbestMe EUR Savings Portfolio remains at 1.60%.

Although this may seem modest in absolute terms, the comparison with traditional bank deposits is revealing. Since inception, the portfolio has achieved a cumulative return of 8.5%, compared to 6.7% for average deposits with maturities of up to one year — a 1.8 percentage point advantage for our clients. In annualized terms, the portfolio has delivered 2.5% versus 2.1% for bank deposits.

But beyond returns, inbestMe savings portfolios have structural advantages that traditional deposits do not offer:

• Automatic compound interest: returns accumulate without the need for periodic renewals.
• Tax efficiency: no taxes are paid until liquidation, deferring the tax burden.
• Transferability: investors can switch to other fund portfolios without tax costs, benefiting from the transfer regime.

The metrics achieved by the portfolio are excellent, as shown in the chart above.
A very efficient savings option.

The USD Savings Portfolio remains at 3.25% IRR

The FED’s decision to keep rates unchanged means that the variable IRR of the USD Savings Portfolio remains at 3.25%, a historically attractive level and highly competitive compared to USD deposits and savings accounts available in the market.

Data since inception is particularly striking: cumulative return stands at 15.0%, compared to 5.5% for average one-year USD deposits (according to the FDIC). This represents a 9.5 percentage point advantage for our clients, with an annualized return of 4.4% versus 1.7% for the benchmark — that is, 2.7 percentage points more per year.

The portfolio metrics are also excellent, as shown in the chart above.

The USD Savings Portfolio is the best alternative for those who need to maintain an emergency fund in dollars or wish to diversify part of their wealth into this currency (assuming exchange rate risk). If your exposure is mainly in euros, the EUR Savings Portfolio avoids this currency risk.

Which portfolio best suits your situation?

Savings portfolios are the ideal solution for liquidity and short-term emergency funds. However, on their own they may not be sufficient to outperform inflation over the long term. Depending on your horizon and objectives, inbestMe offers complementary alternatives:

• Target return portfolios and bond portfolios (in euros and dollars): for investors who want to lock in returns for longer periods and can assume slightly more risk or define a specific time horizon. We have recently launched new target portfolios with funds offering up to 25% cumulative target return.
• Index fund portfolios: the most suitable option if your horizon is medium or long term and you aim to clearly outperform inflation.
• Pension portfolios: the optimal choice for retirement planning, with immediate tax deductions on contributions.

To find out which portfolio is best suited to you, discover your personalized investment plan at inbestMe.

Frequently asked questions about interest rates and Savings Portfolios

What happens to my Savings Portfolio if the ECB raises rates?
The IRR of the EUR Savings Portfolio is variable and adjusts to the interest rate environment. If the ECB raises rates, the IRR would increase, benefiting the investor. If rates fall, the IRR would decrease.

Is the inbestMe Savings Portfolio better than a bank deposit?
Yes, historically the EUR Savings Portfolio has accumulated 8.5% since inception versus 6.7% for deposits with maturities of up to one year. It also offers tax advantages and flexibility that traditional deposits do not. It can be contracted from €1,000 with no limits and no additional conditions or subscriptions required.

What is the current IRR of the EUR Savings Portfolio?
As of March 19, 2026, the IRR of the EUR Savings Portfolio is 1.60%, following the ECB’s decision to keep rates unchanged.

What is the current IRR of the USD Savings Portfolio?
As of March 19, 2026, the IRR of the USD Savings Portfolio is 3.25%, following the FED’s decision to keep Fed Funds in the 3.50%–3.75% range.

What is the risk of the inbestMe Savings Portfolio?
It is a very low-risk portfolio. The Savings Portfolio has virtually no volatility or drawdowns. It is composed of two money market funds that include hundreds of very short-term positions, so interest rate changes do not cause losses. There is a possibility that central bank rates become negative. If that were the case, inbestMe would contact clients to recommend alternatives.

Savings portfolio performance data as of 02/26/2026. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. IRR is a variable estimate subject to the evolution of interest rates.