Returns are higher than expected, but stick to your plan (9/30/2025)

In recent years, we have chosen to report returns in full detail at mid-year and year-end.

However, given the circumstances, we felt it was appropriate to share a brief note with the data as of September 2025, with the aim of helping our clients better manage their expectations.

Exceptional returns as of 30/9/2025

As of the end of June 2025, we had already reported excellent returns from our portfolios.

As shown in the chart above, the returns of our standard portfolios in € have generally continued to accumulate exceptional returns up to 30/9/2025, ranging from 3% for profile 1 to over 10% for profile 10, with an average of around 6.5%.

It can be said that the returns for these 9 months would be equivalent to a good full year… and there are still three months to go!

Even portfolios in dollars (profile 10 exceeds 16%, remember, expressed in dollars) and value portfolios (profile 10, over 12%) are performing better, as seen in the following chart:

On the other hand, ISR portfolios are clearly lagging so far.

Note: you can see the performance of all our portfolios here for different periods.

Cumulative returns above 100%

As of the end of September 2025, more than 10 inbestMe portfolios have exceeded 100% returns since inception (1/1/2017).

A few months ago, we saw that the “million portfolio” had also achieved this milestone. Since then, it has reached 112%.

In particular, the most aggressive portfolios, profiles 9 and 10, are clearly surpassing the 100% mark.

Profile 10 index fund portfolios have accumulated 112% since inception (1/1/2017).

Profile 10 ETF portfolios that were slightly behind have also approached 100%.

The returns of profile 10 USD ETFs are even more exceptional, accumulating 132.5% (remember, expressed in dollars).

Note: you can see the performance of all our portfolios here.

Annualized returns above expectations in higher profiles

This means that many profiles have achieved annualized returns (CAGR or Compound Annual Growth Rate) slightly above their expectations, as shown in the following chart.

In the charts above, on the left, we show the real ARs of standard index fund portfolios (average portfolios <5k and >5k) vs. expected.

On the right, it is clear that lower profiles (1 to 4) are below expectations. This is due to the fixed-income portion still recovering from a very poor 2022 and a slow subsequent recovery.

The AR of profile 6 is almost as expected, at 5.6%.

By contrast, higher profiles (7 to 10), where most of our investors are concentrated, are clearly above expectations by 0.5 to 2 percentage points.

The real AR in these profiles (7 to 10) is excellent, reaching 6.6%, 7.5%, 8.5%, and 8.8%, respectively.

The average profile 7/10, 55% above the benchmark (4.4% AR)

Our portfolios continue to generally outperform their benchmarks.

As an indicator, the average investor profile (7/10), as shown in the chart above, has accumulated 75%, exceeding its benchmark by 55%.

The annualized return (AR) of the average investor profile is 6.6%, now 4.4 percentage points above the benchmark, which stands at 2.1%.

Don’t get carried away by euphoria, stick to your plan

At inbestMe, we like to be consistent.

We believe investment should be analyzed with medium- or, preferably, long-term results. When there have been major declines in the past, we have written multiple articles with the message to stay calm and follow the plan. Those who didn’t do so during bad times undoubtedly made a mistake.

We like to celebrate good results, but we also believe it is important to put them into context.

As we have seen above, the more aggressive portfolios, where our investor clients are concentrated, have recorded in recent months accumulated and annual returns that are very good and slightly above long-term expectations.

Therefore, just as during downturns we remind that markets tend to recover, we should also do so now: exceptional returns do not last forever.
Financial markets move in cycles, and after prolonged periods of gains, more moderate or corrective phases usually follow.

This does not mean we should worry, but rather maintain realistic expectations.

It does not mean we should stop our recurring contributions to our plan.

And even less change our risk profile, unless our goals have changed.

But it also does not mean we should get carried away by euphoria and make extraordinary contributions beyond our means just because things are going well.

In the long term, the returns of our diversified index fund and ETF portfolios will tend to approach expected levels.

Given the current situation, it is likely that more conservative profiles will slightly improve their outlook, while the more aggressive ones will moderate.

For this reason, at inbestMe we continue to insist on the principles we advocate:

• Separate our goals and maintain the necessary diversification and allocation for each of them.
• Ideally, maintain our goals, or review them only once a year if necessary. There is no need to do it more often, and certainly not just because the market is performing better or worse—it has no relation to our goals.
• Make decisions based on planning, not emotions, whether in moments of panic or euphoria in the market.

For this, we continue to recommend that our clients manage their portfolios on autopilot and use the Goal Forecaster. This tool is available for all client accounts, simply activate it. Once activated, reviewing it once a year is more than enough.

What matters is not whether the market is doing well or poorly, but that we achieve our goal (aim in the simulator to be near or exceed a 65% probability) while accounting for inevitable market cycles.

The success of a good investment is not in timing the market, but in maintaining discipline when results—good or bad—temporarily diverge from expectations.

For this reason, in this case, we change the usual “stay calm and follow your plan” to “don’t get carried away by euphoria, and stick to your plan.”

If you reflect on it, you will see that, at heart, it is essentially the same.