Brexit avoided for now, Eurosion full steam ahead
By Lorenzo Ippoliti, Milán
After two days of intense negotiations a deal was finally struck yesterday night between Britain and its European partners. An exit of Britain from the Union would have been probably too much for a shaky Europe in this moment. The deal will certainly bring a brief relief but will not stop uncertainties as a referendum on EU membership will be held in the UK probably on the 23th of June. The latest polls show a slight lead to the Leave Europe campaign.
Cameron will now have to sell the deal at home like a victory. “I’ve negotiated a deal to give the UK special status in the European Union” he said at a press conference on Friday evening and he added “I will be campaigning with all my heart and soul to persuade the British people to remain in the reformed European Union that we have secured today.” We will see if it will be enough to convince voters in a country were Euroscepticism has always been high”.
Cameron basically obtained welfare restrictions for EU migrants to the UK, the exemption for his country from the goal of moving “to a closer union”, a protection for London as a financial center, the exclusion from any possible future bail-out of European countries.
What does the deal mean for Europe?
By allowing a “special status” to Britain it certainly further undermines the idea of Europe. Anti-integration instances in European countries will probably get even more traction after this deal. What is left of the values and the ideals of the founding fathers of Europe? Only endless negotiations over refugees, economic crisis, banking regulations, bail out and bail in. European political integration is now even further away.
We could use the term Eurosion to indicate the progressive erosion of the European dream leading to a possible implosion of the current European architecture.
“I do not love Brussels. I love Britain” said Cameron yesterday. It makes perfect sense. But it does not bode well for the future of Europe.
Sobre Lorenzo Ippoliti.
Lorenzo Ippoliti is a proprietary trader with 20 years of experience mainly in Forex and credit markets. He has worked for some of the major banks in Italy. Lorenzo holds an MBA for the SDA Bocconi School of Management
Our investment strategies in our diversified portfolios and our personalized portfolios are designed to behave reasonably well in any market situation.